Outcomes of Selected TNA Runs with CCI Divergence

The question is whether TNA Run 23, which has been characterized by a CCI Divergence, is completed and the market is on its way down. The light blue table summarizes four other runs with CCI Divergences, where the end date was designated as the last CCI value above 100 before it dipped below 100 for the final time. It is unknown whether this will happen for Run 23 tomorrow. The following parameters were present at the end of each of the four runs: Green AOs, rising and positive KHs, a TSI that rose over 10% from 5 days previously, a falling Demarker and a falling R squared (i.e. de-trending). These parameters are currently present for Run 23. AO, KH, TSI, Demarker & R square values are shown for the end date of each of the Runs. The 2nd table summarizes the % change in TNA 1,3,5,7 & 9 days later. The red row is the mean value for each column.

Who was the 5000th visitor?

It was someone from Toronto, Canada. Could it be one of these Torontonians on this 1910 iceboat ferry?

Number of $SPX 3 Line Break Bricks

Steve Nison's book entitled "Beyond Candlesticks" suggests that when 8-10 lines (bricks) are laid down in 3 LB, the market is either overbought or oversold. The $SPX now stands at 9 bricks. The $SPX has had instances in the past two years where it only reversed or paused after 13, 13, 13 or 20 bricks were laid down, respectively (so the $SPX can run more). The 3LB $SPX Aroon Oscillator is positive which suggests an uptrend. The further the value is away from the zero line, the stronger the trend. The oscillator may lag by half a month for 3LB.

Fun with Kagi $SPX Force Index Triangles

See prior post: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2010/09/after-pullback-forceful-resumption-of-s.html
Gives a 1200 Target for $SPX...

Still Bullish for TNA

Weekly TNA Kagi finally went positive. Daily TNA 3 Line Break laid down another white brick today. Daily TNA Kagi, Daily TNA Renko and $NASI are all still positive. The TNA Blue DEMA is above the Red EMA, which is above the Green MA. The CCI emerged from the consolidative range four days ago. The AO turned green again. The Klinger Histogram went positive (light grey oval). The Demarker still has room to rise. Most importantly, the TNA TSI is still rising. The R-squared is over 0.6 (trending). It looks like we are in the midst of TNA Run 23. Be careful though: the Bank Index is falling apart. FAZ did better than FAS today. The AAPL TSI has been falling for the past two sessions.

What's Next?

Please refer to post below: What's next?
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoC_Qqf_xYl_Y8_cb-U3O3XUDvyttxm7TOSMrKWSIKkGpDs0vSbgE-6qe-KtkGbghLXeeCadzov02yGMPHZHfNvv8pCjbOYxH6afsQrKME7O4osKtrCaf74ZeURiObxg1gjnaS9KJar18/s1600/TNA+RUNS.png
TNA runs resulting in a $NASI RSI greater than 70 were matched with TNA Renko & Kagi. The $NASI uplegs occurred at different times during the Renko and Kagi up-bricks.
There were various types of TNA runs. TNA 2 and TNA 5 had 2nd TNA runs as part of the NASI upleg. The post-run consolidation was down for TNA 2 (fat red arrow), but up for TNA 5 (fat green arrow). So far the post-TNA Run 22 consolidation has been up. The latter also occurred after TNA Run 14 and TNA Run 21, but with different post-consolidation outcomes.
So what's next? Five (2, 5, 9, 15 & 21) of the six TNA Runs had a second TNA Run immediately following the consolidative period. TNA Run 14 was the exception. Have not found any unique characteristics for TNA Run 14, so for now...short term is up.

Bank Index Will "Pull" $SPX Down

Bank Index just went bearish on 3 Line Break and Kagi. The Index never pierced its cloud.

TZA DOUBLE BOTTOM

See post below. Used Demarker to compare different time periods but similar patterns for the Nasdaq 100 and TZA. The Demarker hit bottom (i.e. zero) before $NDX & TZA finished their declines. The Demarkers for both $NDX & TZA bottomed a second time (astoundingly both at 10.43) before they rose up (green arrows) into a consolidative phase (pink). Their Demarkers both bottomed in the low 4 range during the middle of their respective consolidation periods. These periods were associated with alternating red & green arrow MA breakout buy & sell signals, absolute CCI values less than 100, small AO & KH teeth, a TSI line bouncing along zero, and R squared values mainly less than 60. The consolidation ranges both ended with declines in $NDX & TZA (red arrows). These drops trended on the R-squared (purple arrows rising to 90 range) and were associated with maturation of a downward Awesome Oscillator run (blue arrows). A double bottom reversal occurred for NDX.

What's Next for the VIX?

The TSI was utilized to compare different time periods but similar patterns for the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P VIX Short Term Futures ETN. The $NDX & $VXX both declined (yellow). The $NDX bounced up before its final bottom (orange), followed by consolidation (pink) in association with alternating red & green arrow MA breakout buy & sell signals, absolute CCI values less than 100, small AO & KH teeth, a TSI line bouncing along zero, and R squared values mainly less than 60. A double bottom reversal occurred.

Could it be MARCH 14TH 1939?

What Next?

We're in a consolidation phase after TNA Run 22. TNA Runs associated with $NASI RSIs going up over 70 are summarized.

Bull Market?

Nah... Just Bull...
20 year Quarterly $SPX. Looking at lowest panel (R Squared): there were 3 trending runs: 1990's, Dot.com Drop in 2001-2, and the run-up from mid-2004 thru 2008. Action in 2009 & 2010 just represented consolidation [R squared only went half way up, the TSI (True Strength Index) was flat at zero, absolute CCI values were <100, and the DEMA was flat (light blue oval)]. By the way...the yellow dotted line on the lower chart is where the market is "now."

Today's action...

$NASI went negative for today. Third Upthrust day in a row. TSI turned down. Still in consolidative range. R squared & Demarker fell further. Accumulated more TZA during the upthrust. Nice wind today.

Daily TNA Chart Analysis

TNA turned down (currently holding TZA). There were two daily TNA upthrusts in a row (price initially driven up to lure in sucker TNA buyers). Blue DEMA is starting to flatten. Divergences on CCI & KH (green dotted lines). AO still green, but pattern is maturing. KH crossed down through zero (green oval), but TSI is just flattening (has not turned down yet). TD & R squared have turned down for now. The rectangles is the demarker window are a range of days that buy or sell bricks were newly laid down for TNA or TZA by 3 Line Break or Renko. The odd formation in mid-July was related to a sell TNA brick (green dotted line) on 3LB while Renko was still laying down buy TNA bricks. The periods between Buy & Sell brick lay-down periods is consolidative (light blue rectangles on CCI, flat TSI & falling or low R squared). These periods can correlate with brief up & down runs in TNA & TZA (smaller grey & green rectangles in price window). The Stock Market has entered one of these periods.

200D MAs Still on Track

TNA Chart Musings Expanded

1st TNA RUN (based on R square):
START Tuesday 7/6: $SPX Daily 3LB went positive on 7/7, $SPX Daily Renko went positive on 7/7, $NASI went positive for 2 successive days on 7/9, $SPX MACD crossed up on 7/9, $SPX Daily 3LB MACD crossed up on 7/9.
END Wednesday 7/14: $SPX Daily 3LB went negative on 7/16, $NASI went negative for 2 successive days on Monday 7/19.

2nd TNA RUN:
START Wednesday 7/21: $SPX Daily 3LB went positive on 7/23, $NASI went positive for 2 successive days on 7/23.
END Wednesday 8/4:

TZA RUN:
START Tuesday 8/10: $SPX MACD crossed down on 8/11, $SPX Daily 3LB went negative on 8/11, $SPX Renko went negative on 8/12, $NASI went negative for 2 successive days on 8/11, $SPX Daily 3LB MACD crossed down on 8/20.
END Monday 8/23:

3rd TNA RUN:
START Thursday 9/2: $SPX Daily 3LB went positive on 9/1, $SPX MACD crossed up on 9/2, $SPX Daily Renko went positive on 9/2, $NASI went positive for 2 successive days on 9/2, $SPX Daily 3LB MACD crossed up on 9/3.
END Wednesday 9/15:

The Four Swing Trades always involved holding the ETF over a weekend.
ENTRY Confirmation worked well utilizing: 1. $SPX MACD, 2. $SPX 3LB, 3. $SPX 3lb MACD, 4. $SPX Renko, and 5. $NASI.
EXIT Confirmation was not confirmed well by these indicators.
Standart Landyacht at Floyd Bennett Field, Brooklyn, NY.

TNA Daily Chart Musings

Busy Chart, but: R Squared (lowest panel) is the best indicator to pick out optimal entry & exit for TNA run-ups (grey rectangles), consolidations (light blue rectangles) and TZA run-ups (green rectangles). The other indicators assist with ascertaining short trend direction for the swing trade. A TNA run-up has been followed by a consolidation for the past two sessions.

After Pullback, Forceful Resumption of S&P Rise

From stockcharts.com: "Developed by Alexander Elder, the Force Index is a price-and-volume oscillator that helps technical analysts determine if a stock's trend is strengthening or weakening. The raw Force Index is calculated as the difference between today's close and yesterday's close times today's volume. Because the raw Force Index is so choppy, many people use an EMA to smooth it. The 13-period EMA is the most popular choice for smoothing the Force Index. Like all oscillators, the Force Index generates buy and sell signals when it crosses its center line. Trendlines can also be used to determine the direction and strength of the indicator's current movement. When the Force Index is setting new highs, the stock's current uptrend is likely to continue."The TNA Force Index set new highs in conjunction with the TNA Kagi Thick Black Line zooming straight up...

What's next?

Up then down? Today is the white oval and then the yellow rectangle?

Intermediate Trend Still Up on Daily 3 Line Break Charts

The Blue Double Arrows & Boxes show Short Time-Frame Two Line Break Turnaround Signals, where the turnaround line goes beyond the high (or low) of the 2 consecutive prior lines (bars). The Gray signal requires a confirmation Neck line (bar).

Time for Some Type of a Pullback

The TNA run began with a Stopping Volume bar (green oval), confimed by the green AO & rising TSI (grey rectangles). Consolidation then occured confirmed by low absolute CCI values (light blue rectangles). Then the upleg resumed with a trendline breakout on high volume (purple), followed by more consolidation. The market then signalled a Twin Peaks Sell on the AO (green dashed line), an upthrust on low volume (orange oval sucking in buyers on low volume), a CCI over 200 dropping to below 200 (green line), and a peaking of the TSI, Demarker and R squared.
1. The market just drops and doesn't rise for a while (crash).
2. The market initially consolidates and thens drops without a rise (crash). Consolidation can be monitored by price action, MA lines with intertwining with alternating little red & green arrows, absolute CCI values less than 100, tiny AO & KH teeth size, flat TSI & Demarker lines and a CSI going nowhere.
3. The market consolidates as part of a continuation pattern just like the prior two consolidation patterns pictured in light blue rectangular boxes. Then TNA resumes its rise.
4. TZA just goes up without any significant consolidation and then reverses with a subsequuent TNA rise.
Leaning towards 3 or 4.

Who Who: Look who poked through the cloud...

It wasn't TZA...it was TNA & The $NASI.
Barred Owl: "Who cooks for you?" Merriewold Backyard: Labor Day Weekend, 2010

Daily TNA Kagi is Bullish

The daily TNA Kagi is Bullish for the following reasons:
1. There is a thick black yang Kagi line
2. The green trendline was broken
3. The TNA correction (black arrow) did not go below the half-way point (purple line) of the prior Kagi line (purple double arrow)
This bullish move came after a Reverse Three Buddha, which is similar to an inverted head & shoulders. It may not be over for the bears since the weekly TNA Kagi is still bearish and the 3rd Buddha broke down through the middle Buddha's Kagi line (grey arrow).

Anatomy of a Diamond Top Reversal Signal

Merck's chart for mid-August. A brief run up started with Pipe Bottoms associated with Absorption bars (light blue oval). The 1st bar was associated with a VROC value of 244. The run-up resulted in a diamond with alot of Buying Pressure Bars. The middle of the diamond consisted of an upthrust followed by stopping volume associated with an AO drop (green to red). The second half of the diamond had low volume before an upthrust (associated with a Twin Peaks Signal on the AO) and downward trend-line breaker (purple oval) brought in Merck's price decline.

Who was the 4000th visitor?

It was someome from Elk Grove Village, Illinois. Could it be?

Merck Pipe Bottoms & VROC

See comment in prior post. Outcomes of Pipe bottoms are volume dependent. Those with negative VROC values are more likely associated with an initial low volume Falling Volume bar (olive) rather than high volume Accumulation bars (light blue). The most recent pipe bottom was associated with low volume and negative VROC values. VROC does not stand for Vulcan Riders Owners Club...

A Continuation Pattern for $TRAN?

The greater the money supply the higher the stock market...
Compare the Weekly $TRAN chart with the 90min TZA chart below. Both charts displayed a run-up rectangle followed by a downward channel with alternating olive & yellow ovals. The $TRAN channel (pink lines) followed an orange upthrust oval (Big boys driving up price to suck in buyers at end of run) and a green stopping volume oval (skier slamming on brakes). $TRAN broke through the trend line (purple oval) and then back-tested. The TSI & Demarker have bottomed for now. This consolidation has occurred on typical low volume.

End of June TZA Buys Flanking a Continuation Pattern

The top chart is a 90min TNA chart. The two large green rectangles (1st & 3rd) in the TNA Price/MA Window are TZA Buys triggered by EMA greater than MA/100 less than CCI less than 250/Green AO/White KH over 2.5 million (ECGW) Criteria on the 90 min TZA chart. The first TZA Buy Green Rectangle pictured on the TNA Chart has numerous yellow ovals (buying pressure on low volume: big boys aren't buying TNA stock) and orange ovals (TNA upthrust on low volume: big boys drive price up to suck in buyers at the end of a run-up). A 3-phase continuation pattern in the opposite direction of the downward TNA trend occurred between the two TZA run-up. The continuation pattern was formed by a rising alternation between buying pressure and upthrust bars. This pattern occurred within a consolidation period (light blue absolute CCI less than 100 rectangle). The middle green rectangle was associated with a pre-ECGW TZA Buy Signal.
The TZA chart is the mirror image of the TNA chart. The continuation pattern on the TZA chart is made of alternating olive (Falling Pressure: Big boys aren't selling TZA) and yellow ovals (TZA Buying Pressure: Big boys aren't buying TZA).
TNA Upthrusts orange ovals are equivalent to TZA Buying Pressure yellow ovals: the Big Boys aren't buying TZA as they drive up TNA prices for the suckers. TNA yellow Buying Pressure ovals are equivalent to TZA Falling Pressure olive ovals: Big boys aren't buying TNA and they aren't selling TZA.
The pre-MCGW TZA Buy Signal was triggered on the upper chart by the CCI going over 100, a saucer on the AO, a green KH oval in conjunction with a rising TSI. The CSI & R square both went up to compliment the TZA run-up.
Little Boy, Bendy Boy & Big Boy by Paul Greenwood

Who was the 3900th visitor?

It was someone from Mississauga, Ontario. Could it be Oscar Peterson, the "Maharaja of the keyboard." Relax and listen while waiting for a better trade set-up...

90 Minute 5 Day TZA Chart

It's not Bearish enough. Absolute CCI less than 100 suggests continued consolidation. Most of the CCI values are less then zero. The AO is still mainly green and the KH is white but their "teeth" are small (consolidation). It won't take much to flip them red. The Demarker is flat (consolidation). At least the TZA TSI is still going up. The R square is non-trending. The DEMA is flat. At least the EMA is greater than the MA.
Waiting for the CCI to jump to the 100-250 range...unless TNA does its thing...

TNA & TZA 2h Chart Comparison

The top chart is the current 2 hour TZA chart. The bottom chart is a 2 hour TNA end-July reversal chart. Both charts had consolidation periods (blue rectangles with absolute CCI values less than 100). The TNA consolidation period (bottom chart) was preceded by a Price-CCI Divergence and a bottoming of the TSI & Demarker. The TNA consolidation was initiated by a Stopping Volume Bar on higher relative volume (olive oval).
Oval/volume Key link: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPzOBY_8AERH6TerqPNC6SINojlbsfMTWvNBWjC3p7yWwvg-H-5c12sjiKl8NDMDvnHi7KXB_kB-ByVl1QUxFh0BS9k5ZtZhqixZS6Z7ULWx75OzYQEj5AxN6fpIcvo0s00QZ-V_ATc0Y/s1600/OVALS+3.png
The TNA consolidation period was also flanked by light blue absorption ovals (big boys buying up stock). TNA subsequently ran up in conjuction with a positive CCI, green AO & white KH. The CSI rose (yellow line) which suggested trending & volatility [see; http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2010/08/think-or-swim-csi-k-calculation-114286.html]. The R square also rose. The latter suggests that prices were correlated with linear regression values & thus trending in the established direction. The chart suggests that the R square flattens during periods of absorption and reverses after upthrusts.
The TZA chart also demonstrates Stopping Volume ovals (the skier is slamming on the brakes) followed by 11 periods of consolidation. The latter was also preceded by a bottoming of the Klinger histogram, Demarker & True Strength Index, along with a Price-CCI divergence. Absorption is also noted during the consolidation period. The CSI & R square haven't gone up enough...yet.

TZA 2 HOUR CHART WATCH

The CCI has finally gone positive to compliment the green AO and white KH on the 2 hour TZA chart. The TSI and R square are both starting to climb. This is promising for a TZA run.

Bullish & Bearish & Indecision

Bullish for Stock Market: $NASI in black, TNA Daily Kagi, TZA Daily Kagi, TNA Daily 3 Line Break, TZA Daily 3 Line Break, TNA Daily Renko, TZA Daily Renko, TZA Weekly Kagi, TZA Daily Ichimoku, TNA Daily MACD Divergence, TZA Weekly SAR

Bearish for Stock Market: TNA weekly candlesticks, TZA weekly candlesticks, TNA Weekly Kagi, TNA Weekly 3 Line Break, TZA Weekly 3 Line Break, TNA Weekly Renko, TZA Weekly Renko, TNA Daily Ichimoku, TZA Weekly Ichimoku, TNA 2 hour Negative Klinger Histogram & Awesome Oscillator with falling CCI, True Strength Index & Demarker, TZA 2 hour Positive Klinger Histogram & Awesome Oscillator with rising CCI, True Strength Index & Demarker, TNA Weekly ROC(3), TZA Weekly ROC(6), TNA Weekly SAR

Indecision in Stock Market: Trading range for months, TNA daily candlesticks, TZA daily candlesticks, TNA Weekly Ichimoku

Conversion of Instigator to Fastback...

TZA 2 HOUR CHART

There was a big Price-CCI Divergence. The Demarker & AD lines bottomed, followed by the TSI. The Klinger Histogram went positive (green oval). This occurred in conjunction with the CCI rising above -100. If the TZA rally strengthens, the CSI should go back up.

Long Term Bonds & a Falling Market

When the long term bonds rally, TZA goes up. The rally is still above the cloud and the cloud is green. The blue turning line is above the red signal line which is bullish. The question is whether the recent fall in bonds reverses off the top of the cloud or goes down to the lower end of the Bollinger Bands...

E MINI CCI DIVERGENCE