Saturday, August 7, 2010

Indicator Bottoming on TZA Daily Chart


CCI went below -100 and then went up above -100.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Thursday, August 5, 2010

CCI Calculation


CCI = (Typical Price - SMATP) / (.015 X Mean Deviation)

Typical Price= TP=(H+L+C)/3 where H = high, L = low, and C = close.

SMATP= 18-period Simple Moving Average of the TP.

Mean Deviation=mean of absolute values of the difference between the last period's SMATP and the typical price for each of the past 18 periods.

In a Falling CCI-Rising Price Divergence, the higher first CCI peak can be related to a large gap up in price at the open which leads to a larger numerator
(i.e. TP18>>SMATP18). The subsequent CCI peak is lower even though the TP is higher because the SMATP "catches" up to the recent higher prices (e.g. TP18-SMATP18>>TP30-SMATP30). This suggests that gaps get filled unless the subsequent price rise is real big. In the chart pictured TNA's price fell to 44.30 after the divergence occurred.

Now its TZA's Turn


There's a CCI Divergence on the Daily TNA chart.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Two CCI Divergences Lead to TZA then TNA Run


Neither run met the price target. Dumped out of TZA when the Demarker hit 100.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Who was the 2600th Visitor?


It was someone from Cusco, Peru, the capital of the Inca Empire (1200s-1532). I hope that someone wears alot of suntan lotion since Cusco had the highest UV exposure rate in the world in 2006...
see: http://web.archive.org/web/20070614170312/http://www.niwascience.co.nz/rc/atmos/uvconference/2006/Liley_2.pdf
Melanoma