Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
NASI's Kagi Double Window Bottom Buy Signal 3/12/09
The shoulder height was below the two waists. The blue arrow was the buy signal.
Double Modified Buy & Hold Strategy
Second Uplegs In Complex $NASI Tops are bought after 1st big white candle & sold after red consolidation candle. These candles usually have Candlevolume Ease Of Movement values <15.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Darvas Vs. Modified Buy & Hold for ETFs
See: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2009/09/kagi-3-line-break-renko-tna-charts-may.html
The modified buy & hold strategy related to complex NASI tops did better than the Darvas Boxes. The latter would still have a TNA position, whereas the NASI-related technique would have liquidated positions on September 23rd. The complex NASI tops were predicted somewhat by Darvas Boxes (see: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2009/09/tna-darvas-sell-boxes-complex-nasi-tops.html) and was predicted more often by weekly equivolume consolidation (see: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2009/09/tna-weekly-equivolume.html).
ETF TRENDS 9/28
Gann swing charts changed to 3 day periods. Weekly equivolume now charts for breakout.
TNA Weekly Equivolume
TNA may be consolidating now (blue boxes, but not outlined). Weekly charts are better for reading breakouts (black arrow). There is no breakout out on the current TZA chart despite a small breakout on a prior daily chart (see: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2009/09/tza-breaks-out-of-consolidation-on.html)
An Old Chart Revisited...A New Upleg?
See: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2009/09/fas-candlevolume-consolidation-area.html
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Who was the 1000st Hit?
Was it Donald G, my lawyer...no Donald you missed by one hit! (Either way, I'm honored because I'm pretty sure that it was David O, from Warwick, N.Y.). However, this is for you my lawyer & friend...Donald Drew Goldberg is a trial lawyer, who has gained national and statewide recognition for his success representing severely injured construction workers, brain damaged children and adults, lead paint, general accident, malpractice and airplane crash victims, for whom he has earned millions of dollars in awards, as well as his high acquittal rate for his defense of those accused of serious crimes. He is most recently the author of Opening Statements in Medical Malpractices Cases, an instructor in trial tactics for the National Institute of Trial Advocacy and a judge in the final rounds of the 2009 National Trial Competitions. That's almost as good as a Dallas Cheerleader!
TNA Volume Analysis
Yellow boxes are up days on higher volume (good). Weakness became evident as prices fell, but volume rose (red arrows). Professional money was selling shares. Similarly, during the same time period prices went up, but volume went down (black arrows). Professional money was refusing to participate in the up movement because they knew the market was weak. A top was forming.
Silver & Gold's Inverse Head & Shoulder Price Targets
It looks like gold & silver have formed large inverse head & shoulders patterns that are now in backtest mode. Once the share price hits the trend line, buyers may rush in. Price targets are measured from the bottom of the head to the trend line. Price targets for GLD, SLV & AGQ are 124, 21.45 & 69.3, respectively. Associated price gains from the trend line would be 28.3%, 146.2% & 223.8%, respectively. For SLV's chart, certain patterns are associated with improved (e.g. a downsloping neckline & a breakout gap) and diminished performance (e.g. the presence of a backtest & higher volume for the left vs. right shoulder)
TNA & EDC Darvas Sell Boxes & Complex NASI Tops
The 1st Red sell box occurred at a $NASI bottom. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th red sell boxes occuured during Complex NASI Tops. The last blue (not red) box occurred during a "Complex Top." A forewarning of something interesting to come? A head, then 1-2 right shoulders and then a market fall?
P.S. Sell (red & orange) and buy (dark blue, light blue & green) Darvas boxes are shown for EDC. A buy box (light blue) also developed for EDC during the last "Complex NASI Top." A new box (purple) has formed and is waiting for a breakout.
Darvas Boxes for TZA & TNA
Pictured are Darvas Boxes for TZA. The lower chart has TZA buy signals (solid blue lines) and TZA sell signals (solid red lines). Darvas Box TNA sell signals (dashed blue lines) and TNA buy signals (dashed red lines) are pictured as well. Only TNA buy signals were of use. They identified two nice TNA uplegs.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
TNA: Candlevolume EOM, Darvas Boxes, MACD, Kagi & 2-Day Gann Swing Charts
In the late 1950s, Nicolas Darvas was one half of the highest paid dance team in show business. He was in the middle of a world tour, dancing before sell-out crowds. At the very same time, he was on his way to becoming a long forgotten Wall Street legend, buying and selling stocks in his spare time researching only in Barron's weekly newspaper and using telegrams to communicate with his broker. Darvas turned a $36,000 investment into more than $2.25 million in a three-year period. There were 4 Darvas boxes when using settings 5/0/hi-lo. The first 2 boxes were TNA sells (see top chart and dashed orange lines in middle chart). They were poorly timed and in close proximity to Gann swing chart buy signals (1st two solid yellow lines in middle chart). The subsequent two Darvas Buy Signals (Dashed blue lines in middle chart) worked out well and correlated both with the Gann Swing Chart and Kagi (Green Arrows). Kagi buys and Kagi sells (red arrows) correlated well with the Swing charts. Kagi & Gann took turns signaling earlier buys & sells. MACD buy signals were late when compared with Kagi (green arrows).
Who was the 975th Hit?
It was a new visitor from London, England. Could it be Bernard Law Montgomery (1887-1976)? Montgomery, commonly referred to as "Monty," initially earned distinction during World War II due to his highly effective leadership of the British Eighth Army in North Africa. There, Montgomery was the first Allied general to inflict a decisive defeat upon the Axis forces when he drove them from their positions at El Alamein in northern Egypt. On the heels of his North Africa success, Montgomery took part in the Allied invasion of Sicily, and worked closely with U.S. General Dwight Eisenhower planning and implementing the D-Day invasion of France. In September 1944, Montgomery was made a field marshal -- the highest rank in the British Army. The war was not all victories for Montgomery, however. He suffered his worst defeat in battle during his September 1944 attempt to cross the Rhine River at the Dutch city of Arnhem. Six thousand airborne Allied troops were lost in the failed effort.
Montgomery survived this setback, and in 1944, at the Battle of the Bulge, was given temporary command of all British and American forces on the north side of the bulging line. German troops in the Netherlands and northwest Germany surrendered to Montgomery on May 4, 1945.
WD Gann: Price Reactions that Punctate a Trend Will Approximate 50%
The two 50% reactions occurred during downlegs following complex NASI tops.
Friday, September 25, 2009
TZA, ZSL & DPK All Develop Necks on 3 Line Break
See: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWqMGgGWJD_q0c3h6bLdVW0C2yckL7IvSJsLhbUNn1PsGxMwTExgx2gSGkueRjepIN1-khC_-Ml__KnsAxm7sliqqHdDgbDzFpW6IGi0JrlbhuhSbERoJZOeizzTjVDSG3QkfhFntauUA/s1600-h/TZA+3LB+9:24.png
Who was the 950th Hit?
A returning visitor from Silver Spring, Maryland. Doubt if it is John Phillip Walker Lindh (born February 9, 1981). Lindh was born in Washington, D.C., to parents Marilyn Walker and Frank Lindh. He was baptized and raised Roman Catholic, and grew up in Silver Spring, Maryland. When he was 10 years old, his family moved to San Anselmo, California. Lindh suffered from an intestinal disorder as a child. At age 14, Lindh's health improved and he enrolled at Redwood High School as a freshman. He then transferred to Tamiscal High School in the Tamalpais Union High School District, an alternative school offering self-directed, individualized study programs. While there, he studied world culture, including Islam and the Middle East. Lindh subsequently left the school and eventually earned a GED at age 16. Lindh was captured as an enemy combatant during the United States' 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. An American citizen, he is now serving a 20-year prison sentence in connection with his participation in Afghanistan's Taliban army. He was captured during the Battle of Qala-i-Jangi, a violent Taliban prison uprising where American CIA officer Johnny "Mike" Spann was killed.
Lindh received training at Al-Farouq, an alleged Al-Qaeda training camp located in Afghanistan. There, he attended a lecture by Osama bin Laden before the September 11, 2001 terror attacks. Lindh had previously received training with Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, an internationally designated terrorist organization based in Pakistan. Lindh went by Sulayman al-Faris during his time in Afghanistan, but prefers the name Hamza Walker Lindh today. In early reports following his capture, he was occasionally referred to by the news media as just "John Walker".(wiki)
Candlevolume Ease of Movement
Modified Formula based on Richard Arms Jr.'s Ease of Movement Formula for Equivolume Charts
Thursday, September 24, 2009
DRV Develops Double Top Breakout & SCO Develops Triple Top Breakout on P&F Chart
Point & Figure Charts consist of columns of X's (showing price rises) and O's (showing price falls) arranged on a square grid. When the index increases, a rising column of black X's is created – a rally. When the index falls, a descending column of red O's appears – a decline. SCO developed a Triple Top Breakout on the P&F Chart. The price target is 25. (25-19.07)/19.07=31.1% rise. DRV developed a Double Top Breakout. The price target is 28.5. (28.5-21.18)/21.18=34.6% rise.
TZA Dons White Suit on 3 Line Break
Same story for ZSL & DPK. Meanwhile, TNA, DZK, AGQ & URE put on Red Suits. They still need their necks to confirm buy and sell signals, respectively.
SRS Equivolume Stock Volume Distribution Projection
The 3 blue boxes represent periods of consolidation for SRS. The width of these boxes represent the volume of stock (i.e. number of shares) traded during each consolidation. A relatively flat stock price, Aroon patterns (parallel Up/Down lines moving downward) and a flat Rate Of Change confirm that these were periods of consolidation. For each blue box, there is a green box of similar width. These green boxes represent the same number of shares being distributed by the buyers as SRS's price rises, and as the NASI and Nasdaq falls. The width of the blue box is a rough predictor of the volume of ultimate stock distribution in the ensuing SRS rally. The latter can be equated with how long the SRS rally will run. The last blue box may not get much wider, since it seems that the last SRS consolidation may be associated with the top of a Nasdaq head. The postulated NASI "megauptick" may represent a "head." Any run up in Bear ETFs may be lucrative, but short lived in the near term, if the Nasdaq is just forming a head and "needs" to subsequently form a double right shoulder.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Who will be the 900th hit to this blog?
It was a returning visitor from Atlanta, Georgia. Could it be Bobby Jones? Jones was born in Atlanta, Georgia. He was a child prodigy, who won his first children's tournament at the age of six and made the third round of the U.S. Amateur Championship at 14. That same year, 1916, he won the Georgia State Amateur Championship for his first important title at Capital City Club located in Brookhaven, where he became an active member later in life. He was trained and coached by club professional Stewart Maiden, a native of Carnoustie, Scotland, who was a very fine player. Jones played frequently with his father, Col. Robert P. Jones, a skilled player himself. The younger Jones sometimes battled his own temper on the course, but later cured this problem as he became more experienced. Jones toured the U.S. during World War I from 1917-18, playing exhibition matches before large crowds to generate income for war relief. He qualified for his first U.S. Open at age 18 in 1920. He won the Southern Amateur three times, 1917, 1920, and 1922.
As an adult, he hit his stride in 1923, when he won his first U.S. Open. From that win at New York's Inwood Country Club, through his 1930 victory in the U.S. Amateur, he won 13 major championships (as they were counted at the time) in 20 attempts. Jones was the first player to win The Double, both the U.S. Open and the British Open in the same year (1926). He is still the only player ever to have won the Grand Slam, or all four major championships, in the same year (1930). He represented the United States in the Walker Cup five times, winning nine of his 10 matches. He also won two other tournaments against professionals: the 1927 Southern Open and the 1930 Southeastern Open. Jones was a life-long member of the Atlanta Athletic Club (at the club's original site, now the East Lake Golf Club), and the Capital City Club in Atlanta.In 1948, Jones was diagnosed with syringomyelia, a fluid-filled cavity in his spinal cord which caused first pain, then paralysis. He was eventually restricted to a wheelchair. He died in Atlanta, Georgia, on December 18, 1971, about a week after converting to Catholicism, and was buried in Atlanta's historic Oakland Cemetery. He was inducted into the World Golf Hall of Fame in 1974.(wiki)
FAS Candlevolume Consolidation Area Prices
Raff regression lines & equivolume were used to chart the 3 FAS consolidation areas since July. Black arrows represent consolidation area highs (usually represented by hanging men). The first two red arrows represent subsequent consolidation area lows. The latter led into uplegs.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
TNA: Double Shoulder, Head & Double Shoulder
The equivolume chart for TNA suggests: 1. A possible double head & shoulders pattern; 2. A consolidation period (blue box) during the Complex NASI Top that formed the double topped Left Shoulder, and; 3. The formation of a Head (green box) in association with consolidation.
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