Buy TZA

A TNA Bearish 3 Inside Down Candle Pattern Developed today after yesterday's TNA Harami...Buy TZA. see: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijR_c_WEErgMftK7yqaUsJH2mm5JEbMkEQPIih-BeF1dSzV_JI17YF5JZyGkaXE8ZHCf0kZzO9PLjAiN9aO_qL8W0GhEVSHC6jp6vMta-8Alh76KsoTpGc_5QMPgp2USFBx_iRa4GcvfY/s1600-h/candlestick+reversal+1.png
A tighter TRIN candlevolume top end cut-off was implemented as an ELT to stay the false positive TRIN DEMARKER BUY TNA that signalled yesterday.

Stopped out on TNA

TZA on a big roll, but no buy signal by indicators followed.

BUY TNA

SEE BELOW

ELT modification of TNA High Volume Buy TZA & TZA FOSC Indicators

An ELT was added for yesterday's false positive readings for the above two indicators. The ELT utilized was a value cut-off set higher than the extremely low TNA Demarker value that occurred yesterday. Meanwhile... both TNA & TZA developed non-trended (i.e. no signal) Haramis today. The TRIN DEMARKER BUY TNA signal is positive today, suggesting that TNA is a buy. TNA prices have been pulling back since 1:40PM. TNA prices should be continually monitored this afternoon before buying TNA prior to the market's close. Indicators that turn positive during early trading hours can go negative as the day progresses. Other indicators can turn positive.

Sell TZA 1:55PM

The following signals occurred today: 1. DEMAWT TZA SELL, a signal that utilizes a negative TNA Kagi, the TNA Candlevolume based EMV, TNA BOP cut-off values, the daily TZA FOSC, % TZA volume rise when compared with the prior day, TRIN candlevolume, TZA DEMA-Closing Price and TZA Weighted Close minus Closing Price relationship, TRIN DEMA minus TRIN Weighted Close relationship, and TNA Demarker & TZA Demarker Values;
2. a TRIN top warning; 3. DEMA TRINTOP TZA SELL, a signal that utilizes the TRIN Top warning and many of the parameters utilized for the DEMAWT TZA SELL; 4. HOLD TZA FOSC,a signal that seeks a negative mean 2h & daily TNA FOSC, and a more negative & non-consolidative TNA EMV when compared with the prior day, and;
5. TNA HI VOL BUY TZA. TZA was therefore sold

TZA DEMARKER INDICATOR: BUY TZA 3:38pm (UPDATED)

TNA Down Channel R21 is in progress. A Modified TZA Demarker Signal indicated a TZA Buy today. The Demarker Indicator compares the most recent price action to the previous period's price in an attempt to measure the demand of the underlying asset. This indicator is generally used to identify price exhaustion and can also be used to identify market tops and bottoms. This oscillator is bounded between -100 and +100 and, unlike many other oscillators, it does not use smoothed data. (Investopedia) Technical traders primarily use this indicator as a method of identifying the riskiness of the levels in which they wish to place a transaction. Generally, values above 60 are indicative of lower volatility and risk, while a reading below 40 is a sign that risk is increasing. The modified Signal utilizes 3 successive days of TZA Demarker Values in conjunction with 2 successive days of TZA Balance of Power values. For more info on the Balance of Power Indicator see: http://www.worden.com/legacy/TeleChartHelp/Indicators/Balance_of_Power.htm

21st TNA Down Channel Formed

Since TNA trading began in 11/08, there have been 28 TNA Up Channels and 21 TNA Down Channels. A Channel occurs when 2 or more successive days occur with a unidirectional price change of over 1% per day. A Down Channel began this past Friday. It is desirable to own TNA during Up Channnels & TZA during Down Channels. Indicator formulas are being generated for Channel entry, Channel hold & Channel Exit signals.

Donald G was the 1200th Hit!

Persist Donald...this is gonna pay off good...

11AM SELL TZA

The $TRIN awesome oscillator turned green and an indicator based on DEMA, weighted close, Kagi & prior price signaled a sell.

Hold & Accumulate TZA...usual DISCLAIMER

We may be beginning a new TZA Price Channel. TNA Kagi went red. The DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average) is more sensitive than the EMA or SMA to pick up momentum changes. Excel formula utilized is: =Rounddown(-1000*(TNA DEMA - TNA Closing Price)/TNA Closing Price,2). The result was -3.05 today (similar to a negative, red Kagi). The orange ceiling of the TZA price channel may be forming. Just need the TNA 3LB to turn red. TZA also had a FOSC related buy signal today.

Unidirectional Price Channel Search

Arms & Darvas knew that it is best to avoid periods of consolidation & just trade unidirectional trends. The diagram pictures 2 unidirectional price channels bordered by white areas of consolidation. The columns are as follows: date, percentage % for TNA, $TRIN Kagi, TNA Kagi, TNA Americanbulls.com candlestick signal, TZA Americanbulls.com candlestick signal, TNA 3 Line Break, $NASI, TNA Awesome Oscillator & TZA Awesome Oscillator.

12 Volume Formulas

Whoops...the Jake Indicator failed. The indicator may need an extreme limit test (ELT), which weeds out very large or very small indicator moves that suggest that the stock movement is either completed or not significant, respectively. Was stopped out on TNA. However, yesterday's TNA's >1.2X Volume rise over the prior day in conjunction with a negative TNA daily FOSC signal line, 2 successive daily falls in the TNA demarker indicator, a one day rise in the TZA Balance of Power Indicator and a FOSC extreme limit test signaled a TZA buy (DISCLAIMER always in place). A large excel sheet with daily, and when possible, 2 hour selected price, volume and indicator data has been generated for TNA, TZA & $TRIN, going back to 11/08. Twelve volume formulas involving: high & low volume, volume rise & volume fall cut-offs, selected daily & 2 hour indicators with ELTs when necessary, were generated.
On Thursday 10/15 the Jake Indicator TNA Buy Signal would have been questioned by a TZA Low Volume TZA Buy Signal. The parameters in that formula included negative mean 2hour TNA FOSC, a negative daily FOSC & signal,and a TZA volume drop to <0.8 of the prior day. The ELT was a TNA daily EMV of less than 13,500. When Jake is not busy training for the January 14th National Ice Opti Championship on his Blokart Land Yacht, I'm sure he will try to refine his failed indicator.

Holding TNA

A Doji day, but TNA showed some strength as the day progressed. The Balance of Power indicator topped 0.50 late in the day, but retreated to 0.46. The Jake Indicator (a home grown one based on the daily TNA FOSC, daily TNA EMV, daily TNA demarker indicator & TNA candlevolume) flashed positive today. This indicator was also positive on 9/15/09, a white spinning top day with a 6.3% gain the following day. TNA was held because of the Jake Indicator.

3:50 Buying TNA (Updated 8:30PM)

TZA Candlevolume Indicator turned positive for TNA. Mean 2 hour TZA FOSC turned negative, there was a wide difference between the daily TZA FOSC and its signal line, & the TZA candlevolume was of moderate size. A similar signal occurred on 8/12/09, 9/4/09,and 9/9/09. TNA gains on 8/13/09, 9/8/09, 9/10/09 were 2.53%, 3.49%, and 3.87% respectively.

3:50 Back into Cash (updated 8PM)

TZA went up this morning. However, two hour FOSC signals worsened (2.55 down to -1.66), as did the 2 hour EMVs. The latter landed up in the consolidation range. No new buy or sell signals emerged for TZA nor TNA, so the position was closed.

3:50 BUYING TZA AGAIN

Stopped out with a 2% trailing stop. Initiating position with 4% stop market, followed by 2% trailing stop works better. TNA/TZA not consolidating by EMV, TNA EMV rising, the 3 TNA FOSC values are all negative & TNA daily FOSC below signal line. A larger TNA candlevolume would be preferred. Reinitiated TZA position. DISCLAIMER: OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE NOT TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS. ONLY THE INDIVIDUAL TRADER HIM OR HERSELF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY MONETARY GAINS OR LOSSES THAT MAY OCCUR. PLEASE CONDUCT YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE. MARKET OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

Who was the 1200th hit?

It was someone from Staten Island. Could it be Edward Heinrich Robitzek M.D. (1912-1984) Director of Sea View Hospital on Staten Island, once the world's largest Tuberculosis treatment facility? In 1952 he worked with Dr. Irving J. Selikoff and others to develop the revolutionary pill known as Isoniazid, to treat TB. This medication caused the US tuberculosis rate to drop by 35%, saved millions of lives worldwide and countless health care dollars. It is still widely used today. The effectiveness of the treatment led to the closing of the TB treatment facilities at Sea View. In 1993 The World Health Organization declared the reemergence of TB a global emergency. Despite the development of Isoniazid and other drugs about one third of the world's population is infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and TB still causes two million deaths each year. It is the single biggest killer of young women. Most of these deaths occur in poor countries where effective treatment is not available.

Buying TZA 3:45PM

Although a 2 bar upthrust was not confirmed, the daily FOSC and today's mean 2 hour signal line were non-divergent for TNA (both negative) & for TZA (both positive). Mean 2 hour EMVs for both stocks no longer revealed consolidation. Candlevolume-based ease of movement values for both stocks expanded from the very low levels of two days ago. The 2 hour mean Money Flow Index & EMV have been rising for TZA & declining for TNA for the past two days.

Still in Cash

TNA opened high, but it was a doji day. A top reversal candle occurred today. A two bar upthrust (i.e. TZA buy) needs to be confirmed tomorrow with a candle that both closes below and has its low below today's doji. See: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2009/09/tna-two-bar-upthrust.html Today's candle type also occurred for TNA on 9/23/09, 9/9/09, 8/25/09, 8/13/09 & 6/29/09. Formation of a 2 bar upthrust only occurred in 2 of these 5 instances (on 8/14 & 9/23). The mean 2 hour FOSC Signal line are in divergence with the daily FOSC for both TNA & TZA. The mean 2 hour EMV for TZA is still signalling consolidation. Still in cash.

2% Trailing Stop Executed.

Daily & 2 hour TNA/TZA FOSC Divergence along with TNA/TZA EMVs all flashing consolidation.

TNA Trailing Stop

An initial stop market order of 4% was switched to a 2% trailing stop for TNA today.

FOSC & EMV Remain Favorable for TNA.

EMV needs to be watched for consolidation.

TNA: Volume, FOSC, Candlevolume

Position alternates between TNA, TZA & cash. TNA volume dropped 3 times (yellow bold) signaling buys. The FOSC whipsaws and gives wrong signals during consolidation days (blue low candlevolume days). Position should be in cash during blue underlined days. 9/23/09 was the 2nd day of a two bar upthrust signaling a TNA sell & TZA buy. DISCLAIMER: OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE NOT TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS. ONLY THE INDIVIDUAL TRADER HIM OR HERSELF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY MONETARY GAINS OR LOSSES THAT MAY OCCUR. PLEASE CONDUCT YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE. MARKET OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. Here's something to read: http://www.esnips.com/doc/8ebeca88-7efa-49ea-841c-86e27f212b55/The-Undeclared-Secrets-That-Drive-Stock-Market

Happy Birthday Randy

I love you! XOXOXO

Who was the 1100th Hit?

It was someone from Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Was it John Glenn or his beautiful wife Adelaide? "John Glenn (1833 in County Mayo, Ireland – January 9, 1886 in Calgary, Alberta) was the first documented European to settle in the Calgary, Alberta, Canada area. John Glenn took a ship to New York when he was 16 years old. Upon arriving in the United States he decided to travel to Waco, Texas where he took employment on a ranch. In 1861 he was drafted into the Confederate Army, however, as he did not believe in slavery, he deserted and joined the Northern Federal Army. He served during this period under General William Tecumseh Sherman until the end of the Civil war in 1865. He then traveled around the United States, working in mines and in 1867 he moved to British Columbia and then on to Barkerville (along with James Votier and Sam Livingston - who would later become his neighbours in the Calgary area). He spent many years as a solitary man, and at the age of 40 he decided, in 1873 to settle down and this is when he married Adelaide Belcourt of Lac Ste. Anne. The marriage took place in the mission in St. Albert (built by Father Lacombe twenty years earlier) and the ceremony was performed by Father Leduc. They then headed out to find good land to settle on. When they reached Fish Creek they were impressed by the rich soil and decided to make their home there. They built a log cabin in 1873, becoming the first settlers in what is now Calgary[1]. Later he said "I like the climate better than any I have found between the Atlantic and the Pacific; the Rio Grande and the Peace, over all of which Territory I have travelled. There is everything in the country a settler can desire".[Wiki]

TNA Downtrend Confirmed by Kagi, 3 Line Break, Renko, Darvas & 3 Day Gann Swing Charts

Post-simple NASI Top downleg uptick...January 1939???

Not all NASI Tops are Complex. Simple NASI Tops (unidirectional black arrows) may be followed by significant downlegs. The NASI may have just formed a simple top. Any uptick would be short lived, followed by a renewed downleg. Could it be January 1939?

TNA Downlegs: Volume & FOSC

The Forecast Oscillator is an extension of the linear regression based indicators made popular by Tushar Chande. The Forecast Oscillator plots the percentage difference between the forecast price (generated by an x-period linear regression line) and the actual price. The Signal Line is a three-day moving average of the Forecast Oscillator to generate early warnings of changes in trend. When the oscillator crosses below the signal line, lower prices are suggested. When the oscillator crosses above the signal line, higher prices are suggested. Two hour mean signal line results were compared with end day results. These two parameters combined with a decreased volume appear promising for early prediction of culmination of TNA downlegs.

3PM TNA Vol, Trin etc.

TNA volume <8.2million (12.134 yesterday), $TRIN: 0.76 (1.26 yesterday), TRIN candle: Red Doji with long upper wick, TNA candle: red/white candle.

Cycle Lines for NASI 2nd Uplegs

TRIN Candle Doji Watch for 2nd Upleg of Complex NASI Top

If a Complex NASI Top is played out, TNA will begin a 2nd Upleg. Look for a Doji TRIN candle (green arrow)to signal the start of the 2nd upleg.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis for S&P

Culmination of TNA Downlegs (updated)

A downleg is in progress for TNA. Waiting for the NASI to turn positive gives too late of an entry point into the next upleg. A drop in volume after a big down day is useful tip for entry. TRIN values may be useful if they drop. TRIN & TNA candles such as Dojis, hanging men or hammers are useful. Red TRIN candles & low TRIN values are bullish. Kagi, 3 line break & Renko signalled too late, but the 2 Day Gann Swing Chart gave a timely exit signal at the end of one of the downlegs.

TRIN/NASI Relationships