A New Channel is Starting

TNA initially went down today (a TZA KAGI BUY signal that was missed on Friday 11/27 because of improper formula entry on the excel sheet was located mid-day today...an ELT utilizing the Friday's extreme TRIN Demarker reading was integrated because TNA subsequently went up at the close). Four indicators signaled at closing time today:
R FACTOR JUMP SHIP, R FACTOR CHANNEL START, TNA HAMMER BUY TNA & TICK/TRIN CLOSE BUY TZA. The R FACTOR JUMP SHIP indicator signals that the ETF should be sold and the opposite ETF should be bought. The R FACTOR CHANNEL START indicator signals when a new channel is starting. It moves in conjunction with the R FACTOR JUMP SHIP indicator. The last two signals are conflicting.
Pelecanidae Pelecanus occidentalis Brown Pelican, Immature

Dubai Down Day: Buy TNA

Usual DISCLAIMER. The day was marred by the developments in Dubai and by increased margin requirements for leveraged ETFs. Two TNA Buy Signals flashed at the end of the abbreviated trading day: R FACTOR BUY TNA and TZA ABSORPTION EMV BUY TNA. Absorption is reviewed in Williams's excellent book on volume: http://www.esnips.com/doc/8ebeca88-7efa-49ea-841c-86e27f212b55/The-Undeclared-Secrets-That-Drive-Stock-Market#
The latter signal's formula is =AND(FD273>1.15,EY273100,EY273<(FA273+0.67*(EZ273-FA273)),EY273>(FA273+0.33*(EZ273-FA273)),FS273>0). Modifications include TZA daily ease of movement (FS), TZA candlevolume EMV (GO), and TZA daily volume/prior day volume ratio (FD).
1904 Cast Iron Kenton Elephant-drawn Cairo Express.

Sell TNA (updated)

Still in CP. Sold TNA at a small profit. In view of negative end-day TNA return, ELTs were added for VIX DEMARKER 2 TNA BUY, VIX DEMARKER 3 TNA BUY, and TICK TOP REVERSAL BUY TNA. Will stretch & rest for the holiday weekend after early AM rounds, just like an Anhinga. (She's really drying her wings).

Buy TNA (updated)

Later...See Disclaimer above. TNA prices strengthened at the close, causing the TNA FOSC to reverse a positve CP signal. The CP may or may not be ending at this point. If it ended today, we may be entering a yellow up channel. Three indicators signaled a TNA Buy: VIX DEMARKER 2 TNA BUY, VIX DEMARKER 3 TNA BUY, and TICK TOP REVERSAL BUY TNA. The formula for the latter indicator is : =AND(BA271<2.87,DD271<77,ABS(EQ271)>0.05,GS271*GV271<1.55,HT270>1,HU270>1.2,HV270>2,HW270<2.2,(ABS(HT271-HU271)<300),HV271-HW271>0). HT, HU,HV,& HW are the Tick open, close, high & low respectively. DD is the TRIN demarker indicator. EQ, GS,& GV are TZA FOSC calculations. BA is a TNA Klinger Volume Oscillator calculation.
Here's a Golden Fronted Woodpecker in honor of the Front End of a POSSIBLE Yellow Channel.

Beeline for this Book

Meropidae Merops orientalis: Little Green Bee-eater sighted at the Masada Great House, Israel, Feb 2008

VIX R Factor Continues to Signal CP

No other signals. Took TNA profits in AM. Will remain in cash.
Wilkin's 18.5 inch Cast Iron Firetruck

VIX R Factor also Meets Cut-off Criteria

See Disclaimer above. The VIX R Factor also meets cut-off criteria for a CP. TNA futures are up. Take the profit today and run like a bandit.
Cast Iron AC Williams 1926 Lincoln Touring Car "Gangster Sedan"

CP Identification via R Factor & TNA DEMAWT

Whipsawing prices during consolidative periods (CP) can be challenging. Cut-offs for TNA R Factor along with calculations related to TNA DEMA minus TNA Closing Price and TNA WEIGHTED CLOSE - TNA Closing Price, were utilized to detect CPs for TNA. Here's a tidbit on R Factor analysis: http://iahs.info/redbooks/a212/iahs_212_0049.pdf
As of Friday's close, a CP was identified for TNA. This suggests that if TNA rises on Monday, take profits before the trading day ends.
Arcade loco with 150 tender XR75 & XR50 gondola.

TNA $4.67 Capital Gain Paid; Hold TNA

See Disclaimer above. TNA was down >12% at the open, whereas TZA was only up <1% because of a capital gain payment. TZA had a 0.49% gain for the day, so ELTs were added for the TRIN WILLIAMS TOP REVERSAL 2 BAR UPTHRUST BUY TNA, & TICK/TRIN CLOSE BUY TNA signals. The Sell TZA signals were not modifed. By the end of today's trading day, two new TNA Buy signals were flashing: VIX DEMARKER 2 TNA BUY & TNA LOW VOLUME BUY TNA. The formula for the latter indicator is: =AND(S267<0,S266<0,P267<0.91,AB267<0,GY267 less than GY266 and GY266ES266,(EQ267+EQ266)>-1.36) which includes daily percent price change (S), daily volume ratio change (P), TNA FOSC Signal line (AB), TNA Demarker Indicator (GY), TNA BOP (ES), and the daily change in TNA FOSC calculations (EQ).
15 inch Pileated Woodpecker Dryocopus pileatus sighted upstate New York, November 1995.

Buy TNA (updated)

Later..See Disclaimer above...There were 3 TZA Sell signals: TRIN SHOOTING TZA SELL, TICK SELL TZA, & TICK/TRIN CLOSE SELL TZA and; 2 TNA Buy signals: TRIN WILLIAMS TOP REVERSAL 2 BAR UPTHRUST BUY TNA, & TICK/TRIN CLOSE BUY TNA.
Alcedinidae Megaceryle alcyon Belted Kingfisher sighted at Hermitage Golf Course, Nashville Oct 1996

Take TZA Profits

later....
Alcedinidae Ceryle rudis Pied Kingfisher sighted at Caesaria Harbor, Israel Feb 08

Accumulate TZA (updated)

Usual Disclaimer...The TICK/TRIN OPEN BUY TZA signal flashed throughout the afternoon. The formula is: =AND(P253>0.61,P253<1.49,FS253>-7.5,HA253>-2.16,HA253<3.15,HD253>19,HD253<84,BZ253*IA253>-108,IA253/BZ253>-120,IA253/BZ253<79,FH253>0). Parameters include TNA volume changes (P), the TZA FOSC Signal Line (FS), a TZA FOSC calculation (HA), the TZA Demarker Indicator (HD), calculations for the Trin open (BZ) & Tick open (IA),and the TZA per cent change (FH).
Rallidae Fulica atra Common Eurasian Coot, sighted at the Hula Swamp, Israel with Lester & Jake Feb 2008

Doji Day: No new signals

We are neither in an up (yellow) nor down (red) channel. These consolidative periods (CP) usually last 1-3 trading days. Since TNA began trading in 11/08, there were 38 consolidative periods. One lasted 4 days, one lasted 5 days, and three CPs lasted over six days, with the rest lasting three days or less. The last CP for TNA/TZA was 11/10, 11/11 & 11/12/09. TNA closed at 41.8 on 11/9 and closed at 39.46 on 11/12. TNA declined by 5.6% during this CP whipsawing.
1930s Slush CWV12A MIDGET COUPE RACER made by Charles A. Wood

Who was the 1400th hit?

It was someone from Annapolis, Maryland. Could it be George Bancroft, the founder of the Annapolis Naval Academy? George Bancroft (October 3, 1800 – January 17, 1891) was an American historian and statesman who was prominent in promoting secondary education both in his home state (MA) and at the national level. During his tenure as U.S. Secretary of the Navy, he established the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis in 1845. He also gave the orders which led to the occupation of California, and sent Zachary Taylor into the contested land between Texas and Mexico. He also continued his pleadings for the annexation of Texas as extending "the area of freedom," and, though a Democrat, opposed slavery. (Wiki)

Interesting Volume Divergence

See link to Afraid to Trade.com Blog in My Blog List...

Pratt & Letchworth (Buffalo) cir.1895 NYC & HRRR Cast Iron Locomotive (1039) with Steel Freight Cars (1665)

Monster up day

Monster up day...put in ELT for TICK/TRIN CLOSE BUY TZA [raised VIX DEMARKER(HI) cut-off to >20]. Eliminated the other indicator from the excel sheet. Now getting numerous TNA Sell signals (TICK/TRIN OPEN, TZA WILLIAMS, VIX WILLIAMS & DEMAWT SELL TNA) & one TZA Buy signal (TICK HAMMER BUY TZA). We'll see...
Gruidae Grus canadensis Sandhill Crane sighted at PGA National Resort & Spa Florida Jan 1997

Here's a Useful Book

There's a used copy on Amazon for $9.48.

Columbidae Zenaida asiatica White-winged Dove, sighted at People's Perch, Ambergris Caye, Belize, Dec 05

Who was the 1385th hit?

It was someone from Buenos Aires, Argentina. Could it be Juan Manuel Fangio? Fangio (June 24, 1911 - July 17, 1995) was a race car driver from Argentina, who dominated the first decade of Formula One racing. He won five World Championship titles — a record which stood for 46 years — with four different teams (Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, Mercedes-Benz and Maserati), a feat that has not been repeated since. For these achievements, and because of the time they were accomplished, he is considered by many as the "greatest driver of all time".

Buy TZA (updated)

Later. Usual Disclaimer in place...Two signals flashed late in the trading session: DEMAWT TNA SELL & T WILLIAMS TICK MODIFICATION 2 TRUES BUY TZA: There are 2 formulas for the latter, and both need to be positive on the same day for it to signal a TZA Buy.
1.=AND(IH262>IH261,IH262>IH260,IH262>IH259,(IH262-IG262)<480,(IH262-IG262)>0)
2.=AND(IH262>IJ261,IJ262>IJ261,ABS(IH262-IJ262)>400,(IH262-IJ262)>1197)
Parameters include the Tick Close (IH), Tick Open (IG), Tick Low (IJ) & Tick Open (IG) for successive days.
When the first formula is positive on day one and the second formula is positive on day two, it signals a TNA Buy. The candle patterns are adapted from T. Williams's on-line book...see: http://www.esnips.com/doc/8ebeca88-7efa-49ea-841c-86e27f212b55/The-Undeclared-Secrets-That-Drive-Stock-Market#
Gruidae Grus grus Common Crane sighted (25,000 of them) at Hula Lake, Northern Israel, on the Syrian-African Rift, with Jake, Feb 2008.

Sell TZA (updated)

Take profits...Later....A VIX WILLIAMS SELL TZA signal flashed late in the day. The formula is: =AND(EW261<4.415,HJ261>-25,ABS(HK261-HM261)>2.1,AA261>-19.56,DQ261<11.81,HP261>HR260,HR261>HR260,ABS(HP261-HR261)>1,(HP261-HR261)>1,(OR(ABS(CO261)<0.078,ABS(CO261)>0.178)),HP261>HP260,HP261>HP259,HP261>HP258,(HP261-HO261)<13,(HP261-HO261)>0,EZ261>0.45,EZ261<0.88), which includes parameters such as: TZA FOSC calculations (EW & HJ), a TNA/TZA Demarker calculation (HK & HM), the daily TNA FOSC (AA), a TRIN KVO calculation (DQ), VIX open, close & low calculations (HO, HP & HR), a TRIN DEMA & weighted close calculation (CO), and the TZA BOP (EZ). The Hooded Merganser was sighted at the Wild Dunes Golf Course on the Isle of Palm, S. Carolina.

Buy TZA

Two TZA Buy Signals towards the end of the trading day: DEMAWT TZA BUY & TICK HAMMER TZA BUY. Formula for DEMAWT TZA BUY: =AND(HJ260<-0.6,CZ260<9,ABS(AI260)<14221,HJ260>-4.27,FX260>-11.04,FX260<6.04,HP260<64,HN260<89.36,BF260>-361,FP260<1.32,FP260>0.76,FB260<0.12,CH260>0.4,CH260<1.58,FN260<0,GJ260<3.98,GK260<2.875,S260>0,GK260>-3.511,ABS(GT260)>0.34,CR260>0.17,CR260<0.39,GJ260>-9.74) which includes: a daily & 2 hour TNA FOSC calculation (HJ),the TRIN Candlevolume EMV (CZ), the daily TNA EMV (AI), the daily TZA FOSC (FX), the TZA Demarker Indicator (HP), the TNA Demarker Indicator (HN), the TNA Candlevolume EMV (BF), TZA volume/Prior day TZA volume (FP), TZA BOP (FB), TRIN close (CH), TZA price percent change (FN), TZA DEMA - TZA Price Calculation (GJ), TZA Weighted Close - tza Price calculation (GK), and TRIN DEMA - TRIN Weighted Close calculation (CR).

Doji Day TZA up

Up channel (Y32) completed. Need to be more careful with excel sheets. Kagi TNA Buy signal & NVIDEMAWT TNA SELL were not true, once sheet adjusted. An ELT utilizing the TRIN Klinger Volume Oscillator was added to the false TRIN DEMARKER BUY TNA signal. The TZA LOW VOLUME BUY TZA signal was for real. Will remain in cash for now, since there were no new signals today.

Mixed Signals

There was a mid-day and end-day KAGI TNA BUY signal (this signal does not have an ELT). The rare, LOW VOLUME TZA BUY signal subsequently flashed. Traded in & out of TNA for a small profit. Now back in cash. The LOW VOLUME TZA BUY formula is as follows: =AND(GA258<0, FB258>FB257, HR257-1.36,FR258<0.8,HR258less than HR257). The formula includes 3 successive days of the TZA daily demarker falling (HR), 2 successive days of a rising TNA BOP (FB), a negative TZA daily FOSC Signal line (GA), TZA volume/TZA prior day volume (FR) <0.8, and a calculation involving the daily TZA FOSC & signal line for two successive days. A TRIN DEMARKER TNA BUY Signal & NVIDEMAWT TNA SELL also flashed. Thus, the cash position.

Buy & Sell Signals found for Completed 2 day Up Channel (Y32)

Further analysis found TICK HAMMER TNA BUY signals at the conclusion of trading on 11/4/09 & 11/5/09 and a TICK TNA SELL signal at the conclusion of Friday's trading. Open, close, high & low price data for TNA, TZA, $TRIN, $VIX & TICK since 11/5/08have been entered onto an excel sheet along with a variety of associated indicators. The TICK HAMMER TNA BUY signal formula is as follows: =AND(CR4<0,GL4<5.99,ABS(GL4)>0.8999,ABS(HD4)>147,OR(DT4>1.96,DT4>-3.07),HR4<99,OR(HP4<19,HP4>88),II4>-1007,II4<1126,FA4>-1.721,FA4<6.893,AB4>-4.08,AB4<7.78,CT4>-0.53,CT4<0.405,EH4>-2.24,EH4<4.51,GV4>-1.19,GV4<1.1,FB4<0.77,FB4>-0.81,HO4>-7.892,HO4<0.59,OR(DQ4=TRUE,IL4=TRUE)). The parameters in the formula include: the presence of a Tick Hammer, the presence of a TRIN Inverted Hammer (Shooting), a TZA FOSC Data Calculation, the TNA BOP value, TZA DEMA-Price/ TZA Weighted Close-Price Calculations, a similar type of TNA calculation, TRIN DEMA-Weighted Close calculations, the TNA Daily FOSC Signal Line value, a TZA Daily FOSC Calculation, the Tick Close, the TNA Demarker, the TZA Demarker, a TRIN Klinger Volume Oscillator Calculation, and the TZA Candlevolume EMV.

Remaining in Cash

No new signals. Lately have been working on "stay in cash signals" utilizing TRIN, VIX & TNA candlesticks such as hammers & inverted hammers (shooting) and the Klinger Volume Oscillator.

The 1350th hit was from New York City

Was iT Colonel Norman Wiard? Norman Wiard, an inventor of some celebrity, made an ice
boat in 1856 and placed it on the river at Prairie du Chien, intending to run between that point and St, Paul, It was elaborately planned and elegantly finished, and resembled somewhat a palace car mounted on steel runners. It failed on account of the roughness of the ice, never making a single trip. It, however, proved somewhat remunerative as a show, and was for some time on exhibition within an inclosure at Prairie du Chien. The Wiard was designed by Canadian-American Norman Wiard. The guns were likely produced by O'Donnell Foundry in New York, using steel casting. Seen here on a standard reproduction carriage, the original guns had an advanced carriage that allowed the gun to elevate higher than normal field guns. The carriage also featured system of chains and shoes for each wheel to aid ascent and descent in broken terrain.

Sell TNA; Buy TZA

TNA'S 2.5% rise was short -lived this AM with the bears winning the fight as the day's doji converted into a spinning top and then into a red candle. By the end of the day the following TZA buy signals flashed: VIX HAMMER BUY TZA, BOP BUY TZA & an HOLD TZA.

Buy TNA

Current signals: TRIN DEMARKER TNA BUY & HOLD TNA FOSC. Richard Arms developed the TRIN indicator (which is also known as the ARMS indicator) in the 1970s. The TRIN indicator is calculated by dividing the Advances/Declines (AD) Issues Ratio by the AD Volume Ratio:TRIN = ((Advancing issues/declining issues) / (advancing volume/declining volume)). The TRIN was developed as a contrarian indicator with the intent of pinpointing the critical levels at which a market becomes overbought or oversold. Generally, a rising TRIN indicates bearish sentiment and a falling TRIN indicates bullish sentiment. The demarker indicator has been explained in a prior post. The TRIN DEMARKER indicator formula utilized also includes the TRIN candlevolume EMV, the TNA BOP, and the daily TNA EMV.
The HOLD TNA FOSC indicator looks for the absence of consolidation on the mean 2h FOSC signals, the presence of a long candle on TNA candlevolume, a positive daily TNA FOSC, daily TNA FOSC signal line and mean 2h TNA FOSC, and a rising successive mean 2h EMV.

SELL TZA

DEMAWT TZA SELL [=AND(S253<0,ABS((EY253-EX253)/EX253)<1.1,ABS((EY253-EX253)/EX253)>0.93,FB252=-1,FC252=-1,FB253=-1,FC253=-1)] & TRIN/TNA Candle Volume BUY TNA [=AND(DK253<30,DK253>-15,AA253>0,ABS(BK253)<15,ABS(AA253-AB253)<2)] Signals flashed late in the day.