Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Hints for an End of the Stock Market Downleg
From the American Bulls website: TMF (3x 30 year Bond Bull ETF) had a Bearish Deliberation Pattern. see: http://americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=TMF&MarketTicker=NYSE&TYP=S
From their website:
"BEARISH DELIBERATION
Type: Reversal
Relevance: Bearish
Prior Trend: Bullish
Reliability: Medium
Confirmation: Suggested
No. of Sticks: 3
The Bearish Deliberation Pattern is a derivative of the Bearish Three White Soldiers Pattern. This pattern also shows a weakness similar to the Bearish Advance Block Pattern since it becomes weaker in a short period of time. However here the weakness occurs all at once on the third day. The small third body of the pattern shows that the rally is losing strength and a reversal is possible.
Recognition Criteria:
1. Market is characterized by uptrend.
2. We see long white bodies in the first and second days.
3. The second day has a higher close than the first day.
4. Then the third day opens near the second day's close.
5. The third day is typically a short white candlestick, a spinning top or a star that gaps above the second day.
Explanation:
The Bearish Deliberation Pattern appears after a sustained upward move and is suggestive of the fact that the rally is losing strength and a reversal is possible. The formation is a proof that the bulls’ strength is at least temporarily exhausted.
Important Factors:
The last small white candlestick may show a gap away from the long white body, thus becoming a star, or it can be riding on the shoulder of the long white real body.
The Bearish Deliberation Pattern is not normally a top reversal pattern but it has potential to precede a meaningful price decline. This pattern is more important at higher price levels. It must be used to liquidate long positions but it is yet too early for short positions.
A confirmation on fourth day is required to confirm that the uptrend has reversed. This may be in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close on the fourth day."
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