See prior post. Would be in cash now.
Monday, May 31, 2010
ROC Trading System
Use Weekly TNA Chart with ROC settings at 3 & 6. Buy TNA (Sell TZA) when ROC(6) crosses up above zero and Sell TNA (Buy TZA when ROC(3) crossed below zero.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
The Market Run-up Since March 2009 Was a Backtest
A la Robert E New from the Public Chart List at stockcharts.com
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Chris Whelan's Trend Lines
As per Mr. Whelan: The green and red lines on the charts are trend indicators, when they are both above the upper blue line there is an uptrend, when below the lower blue line a down trend and when the green and red lines are in between the blue lines the secuirity is range trading. My signal line is the white and purple, white over purple is a buy and the opposite is a sell. Signals are only used when the security is trending. I use trendlines and divergences to help confirm trading decisions. Low Volatility = Fuel, Pink Line on Bottom is Volatility; Only trade long or flat on weekly uptrends; Only trade short or flat on weekly downtrends; Trade Long or Short on Weekly Range Trading.
10 month SMA approach with filter bands
A derivative of Mebane Faber's 10 month SMA approach, with filter bands added to reduce whipsaws; BUY when the monthly. line exceeds the 2% upper band, SELL when the monthly line penetrates the 2% lower band. A la Ransom Reynolds from the Public Chart List on stockcharts.com. SPX hasn't penetrated the lower band "yet." The following ETFs have already penetrated the lower band: EFA (EAFE index), EEM (Emerging Markets Index), ILF (Latin American index), DBC (Commodities) and XLE (Energy).
Friday, May 28, 2010
AO Trading System Stats
Over the last 12 trading days the AO System signalled 52 Buy Signals for either TNA or TZA at the end of a 10 minute period (e.g. end of 1st period). If one was able to purchase shares at the onset of the next (2nd) period and sell them at either the high or low of that period, the mean yield per trade was 0.98%. Alternatively, if the shares was sold at the onset of the following time period (3rd period), the mean yield per trade was only 0.22%. If the shares were sold at either the high or low of the 3rd period (not always an easy task), the mean yield per trade was 0.81%.
Who was the 2400th hit?
It was someone from Mountain View, California. Could it be Henry John Kaiser (May 9, 1882 – August 24, 1967), an American industrialist who became known as the father of modern American shipbuilding. He established the Kaiser Shipyard which built Liberty ships during World War II, after which he formed Kaiser Aluminum and Kaiser Steel. Kaiser organized Kaiser Permanente health care for his workers and their families. He led Kaiser-Frazer followed by Kaiser Motors, automobile companies known for the safety of their designs. Kaiser was involved in large construction projects such as civic centers and dams, and invested in real estate. With his acquired wealth, he initiated the Kaiser Family Foundation, a charitable organization. (Wiki)
Thursday, May 27, 2010
The trend is now up (but it may be short-lived)
TNA Kagi is now black. TZA Kagi is now red. American Candlesticks flashed a TNA Buy. $NASI was still negative today.
?Right Shoulder Formation then Big Downleg
Lifted from Maurice Walker...He's postulating that we go up to about 1150 on the S&P and then a big downleg to retest the March 2009 low unfolds.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Nice trading day
Market orders to buy TNA were placed prior to today's open in view of yesterday's signal at the close. TNA was then sold off during the 1st time period. The 10 minute AO system flashed a TNA Sell signal at 9:50 AM. TZA Buy Signals flashed at 2:40 PM and 3:20 PM. Each of the 2 intramarket day TZA Buy signals subsequently flashed a sell at the end of one 10 minute period. There was no signal at the close.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
TNA Redwhite Candle Today
The market opened low and went lower (as predicted yesterday). Then it fought its way back all day. The 10 minute AO system flashed a TZA Sell signal at 9:40 AM. TNA Buy Signals flashed at 11:40 AM, 2:10 PM, 3:30 PM & at the close. Each of the 3 intramarket day TNA Buy signals subsequently flashed a sell at the end of one to two 10 minute periods. The 4th signal (at the close) predicts a market rise during the 1st 10 minutes of trading tomorrow. Thus the Green Barclay Racer.
Monday, May 24, 2010
AO Buy & Sell Signals
The 10 minute AO system flashed a TNA Buy Signal at 9:40 AM and TZA Buy signals at 1:50 PM, 3:20 PM & the close. Each of the 3 intramarket day signals subsequently flashed a sell at the end of the 10 minute period. The 4th signal (at the close) predicts a market decline during the 1st 10 minutes of trading tomorrow. Thus, the Red BV50 Barclay Racer.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Use of the 2nd Green Bar to Initiate Buys
10 minute 2 day setting for TZA. Use 2nd green bar for awesome oscillator. Want KVO crossing up in conjunction with a rising (but not topped out) DeMarker Indicator & Chaikin Money Flow. Also want to avoid Declining Twin Peaks above the zero line (see:http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/market-analysis-guide/chaos-theory/ao.html) Could use trailing stops. At your own risk...see disclaimer above.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Tip #2 KVO
Stephen J. Klinger developed the Klinger Volume Oscillator indicator, which uses volume to measure the accumulation or distribution of shares in order to determine the long-term trends of money flow while remaining sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
1. In the case of an up-trend, a buy signal is generated when the KVO crosses its trigger line (the 13-day KVO exponential moving average) from below after a big drop below the zero level.
2. In the case of a down-trend, a sell signal is generated when the KVO crosses its trigger line from above after reaching unusual high levels above zero.
3. When the Klinger Volume Oscillator indicator starts increasing but the underlying symbol is decreasing, the underlying symbol price is likely to start increasing. (Positive Divergence).
4. When the Klinger Volume Oscillator indicator starts decreasing but the underlying symbol is increasing, the underlying symbol price is likely to start decreasing. (Negative Divergence).
One can follow the 1 minute TZA chart and watch the KVO to initiate buys and sells. (see disclaimer above) 8" Hubley Racer No. 1
Trading Tip #1
Don't trade against the trend. The trend is down. Here's the TNA Kagi chart which supports a downward trend since April 27th (line is red). Avoid trading TNA...just trade TZA now (see disclaimer above).
Monday, May 17, 2010
Day 2 TNA Channel Tommorrow
Today's fingerprint was: CRZNV CRNZV UUUDD DUUUD PPNNP
Numerous TNA UD Signals rang including: TNA BOTTOM BREAKOUT NEXT DAY 2 OF CHANNEL; VIX DEMARKER MOVE >2000 PARALYSIS, TRIN 3.618 BLIP 24D MAX-TNA HAMMER-TZA TD REI, TRIN 3.618 BLIP 24D MAX-TNA HAMMER-WALDO TRIN 7B, WALDO TRIN 7B-TICK HAMMER-TRIN 2.618 BLIP 24D MAX, TICK DOWNSIDE CLOSE:OPEN- RISING TNA & TZA TD REI, TNA UP DAY-VIX & TNA DIVERGENCE (NEXT IS DAY 2 TNA CHANNEL), DOWNTREND TICK GANN 3D SWING,& TRENDED TNA HARAMI BUY TNA
Kenton Jockey
Friday, May 14, 2010
Monday Should be Up
Today's Fingerprint was:CRVNZ CNZRV UUUUD UDDDU PNNNP
TNA's TD REI went up as TNA's 5 day High-Low Range Contracted (TNA went up then down during the 5 trading days causing a smaller denominator in the TD REI formula). Only TICK had expansion of its 5 day High-Low Range. Numerous Unidirectional (UD) TNA BUY Signals Rang including: TNA TD REI CALC-POSITIVE TNA PLDOT-RISING TRIN TD REI BUY TNA The formula for this signal is: AND(BA388>0,AT388>AT387,(AS388*(AS388-AS387)/AS387*(AS387-AS386))<-2600), where BA is TNA PLDOT minus its Close (2.68>0), AT is the TRIN TD REI(237>209) and AS is the TNA TD REI [(217*(217-140))/140]*(140-188)= 16,709/-6720=-5728. The TNA PLDOT- TNA CLOSE was negative all week, but turned positive today because of an overall drop in TNA's close, high & low. The formula is: =ROUNDDOWN((((AVERAGE(BQ388:BS388)+AVERAGE(BQ387:BS387)+AVERAGE(BQ386:BS386))/3)-BQ388),2). BQ, BR & BS are TNA's Close, High & Low respectively. [(56.62+58.98+54.25)/3+(60.115+63.16+59.22)/3+(61.92+62.08+57.39)/3]/3-56.62=[56.62+60.83+60.46]/3-56.62=59.3-56.62=2.68. The VIX PLDOT minus its Close went negative on Friday (-3.69) as a previously falling VIX Close (the market went up during the first half of the week) exceeded its PLDOT with a declining market. A VIX TD REI CALC-POSITIVE TNA PLDOT-RISING TRIN TD REI BUY TNA also flashed today.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Up then Down...
The following signals rang at the close: MARKET PROFILE TRENDING AM; RISING TRIN KVO (UD) BUY TZA; TNA BOP^ (LO TZA-MID VIX) R FACTOR 7 (UD), TNA DEMA TRENDED HARAMI (UD) & TICK-TRIN OPEN BUY TNA; R FACTOR CHANNEL START. Today's fingerprint was: CRVNZ ZVRNC DDDDU UDDDD NNPPN.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
TNA ...up again
Ran with TNA today...now there are 2UD TNA buy signals (including WALDO TRIN 7B-TICK HAMMER-TRIN 2.618 BLIP), but multiple TNA Sell Signals. Today's fingerprint was: CRVNZ VZRNC DDDDD DUUDU NPPPN. Went back into cash.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Mixed Signals
Today's Fingerprint was: CRVZN VZRNC UDUUU UDDDU NNPPN. TNA KAGI, TZA KAGI & $NASI are bearish. TRIN KAGI & American Bulls TNA Candlesticks are bullish. The fight goes on...
Monday, May 10, 2010
Mixed Signals: In cash
Mixed signals. Today's TD REI- PLDOT Fingerprint was CRVZN VZRNC UDUUU DUUUD NPPPN. Despite such an extensive up day, the Bearish Trend Remains: TNA KAGI, TZA KAGI & American Bull Candlesticks all remain bearish. It was surprising that even the $NASI was down by 18.79% today.
Barclay Coast to Coast Bus...Red, like the market...
Friday, May 7, 2010
TZA Market Profile Trending Day
No headaches today. It was another TZA Market Profile Trending Day. It was a good day to buy TZA on its dips and sell near its high. This was done repeatedly today. The following signals rang at the close:MARKET PROFILE TRENDING AM; TD TRIN AVERAGE, TRIN KAGI, TICK BLACK CANDLE, TRIN 0.618 DIP 24D MAX & TZA DEMAWT BUY TNA; TNA TS TD DIFF, VIX TD DIFF, TZA TD DIFF, TZA DEMAWT, TICK, TICK/TRIN CLOSE SELL TZA; DEMAWT JUMP'N ONE; NASI-KAGI & POS-3NEG TRIN-KAGI BUY TZA. Mainly in cash for the weekend.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
So Far Down...So Few Signals
At the close:MARKET PROFILE TRENDING AM; DEMAWT SELL TZA; DOWNTREND TNA GANN 3D SWING-TRIN>TZA>TNA TD REI-TNA>TRIN>TZA>VIX PLDOT-3 FALLING TD REIs-POSITIVE TNA & TRIN PLDOTs-NEGATIVE TZA & VIX PLDOTs (UD) & TRIN 0.328 DIP 24D MIN BUY TZA.
Bizarre BZ109DB Panhard Tank #58 23rd pl. Le Mans 1950
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Down day
In view of rising futures, put in market orders to buy TZA at the open. Took profits soon thereafter. Bought TNA at the close. The following signals rang at the close: MARKET PROFILE TRENDING AM; NEGATIVE NASI-KAGI (UD1), TICK REDWHITE SHOOTING-TRIN>TZA>TNA TD REI-TNA>TRIN PLDOT-FALLING & NEGATIVE TZA PLDOT-POSITIVE TNA PLDOT (UD2), TRIN REDWHITE SHOOTING-TRIN>TZA>TNA TD REI-TRIN>VIX PLDOT-NEGATIVE VIX PLDOT (UD3), TICK RED WHITE CANDLE, VIX R FACTOR 10D RATIO BUY TZA; TICK/TRIN CLOSE, TNA DEMAWT & TZA DEMAWT SELL TZA; MODIFIED TRIN ABSORPTION BOTTOM (UD1), TD TRIN AVERAGE (UD2), DOWNTICK TRIN DEMARKER ALTERNANS-TRIN>TZA>TNA TD REI-RISING & POSITIVE TRIN PLDOT(UD3), LOW TZA R FACTOR 10D RATIO-PRIOR DAY:NEGATIVE NASI & TD CHANNEL TNA 1L(UD 4) & TRIN KAGI BUY TNA. BARCLAY 1931 AUBURN BOAT TAIL SPEEDSTER.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Huge Battle in Progress
Traded in & out of TZA today. The following rang: MARKET PROFILE TRENDING AM; HIGH TZA CLOSE*VOL-TD CHANNEL-UPTREND TZA GANN 3D SWING OR WALDO TZA 7A(UD1), NEGATIVE KAGI(UD2), Z>70-TZA REVERSE 3DE OR TD CHANNEL TNA 1L(UD3), TNA BEARISH 3 INSIDE DOWN(UD4), TNA HIGH VOLUME, FOSC EMV & VIX SHOOTING BUY TZA; TRIN 0.328 DIP 24D MIN-LOW TNA-TRIN 10D WT CLOSE-GLAZ TNA FOSC CALC OR TRIN 6B(UD1), TNA BEARISH 3 INSIDE DOWN-TRIN TB TD DIFF OR TRIN WILLIAMS(UD2), TNA PLDOT CALC-RISING TRIN TD REI(UD3), TNA TD REI CALC-POSITIVE TNA PLDOT-RISING TRIN TD REI(UD4), LOW K KLM (TNA-TZA-VIX) (ASSOC W/TNA R FACTOR 10D RATIO) R FACTOR 11(UD5)& PLUS MINUS ALTERNANS BUY TNA. In cash overnight.
Exoto Porsche 935 Daytona #0 INTERSCOPE
Monday, May 3, 2010
Mixed Signals: In Cash
Had many strong TNA BUY signals in AM. Traded in & out of TNA. The following rang at the close:MARKET PROFILE TRENDING AM;AN>10-WALDO TRIN 7B OR PRIOR DAY: TICK REDWHITE CANDLE (UD), GC (TNA DEMAWT CALC)< MINUS 7-TRIN CLOSE*TICK CLOSE>482 (UD), & TZA TS TD DIFF, TICK 6A & DEMAWT BUY TZA; NR-WR NEXT DAY 2 CHANNEL; HIGH VIX R FACTOR 10D RATIO-PRIOR DAY:TICK TOP BREAKDOWN (UD), WALDO TRIN 7B-TICK HAMMER-TRIN 2.618 BLIP (UD), TRIN RED WHITE SHOOTING-TZA>TNA>TRIN TD REI-VIX>TRIN PLDOT-FALLING TNA PLDOT-RISING TZA & VIX PLDOTs(UD), TRIN REDWHITE CANDLE BUY TNA
Rare 1934 Hubley Headlight Racer
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