Friday, October 22, 2010

HAPPY NEW YEAR...THANKSGIVING....NOV 18TH 1975







Happy New Year! It's January 1976 (see top=1st MONTHLY chart: solid pink line). The S&P dropped in 1973 (orange line) in conjunction with a negative CCI, dropping red AO, falling TSI and rising (trending) RSQR. This was followed by a rise in the S&P followed by consolidation (low absolute CCI values, small green AO teeth, a flattening of the TSI line near zero and a falling RSQR. We are now at the pink line. The current MONTHLY S&P chart looks VERY similar (2nd chart). What happened next? The market rose to the blue line over the next 12 months by 5.94% (that would put the S&P at 1253). It then fell by 18% to the dotted pink line. Typical Bear Market.
Next...honed in on the WEEKLY charts...the S&P is really at November 24, 1975 (thinner pink line on 3rd chart). The Moving average lines are tangled in consolidation, the CCI is at 145, its the last small toothed green AO, the RSQR is at 0.76...HAPPY THANKSGIVING. The current WEEKLY S&P chart (4th chart) looks very similar. Price extrapolation suggests that the S&P dropped by 4.84% to the equivalent of 1126 before its rise to 1253.
Next...honed in on the DAILY charts...the S&P is really at November 18, 1975 (thick dashed pink line on 5th chart). The TSI & AO crossed up through zero about 6 weeks earlier (thick olive line) and then the S&P ran up. The CCI landed up around 95 associated with a blue DEMA line above the other two MA lines, the daily AO turned red and the overall TSI was dropping . The market went sideways before the small drop and bigger rise...

1 comment:

  1. I saw your comment on Pug blog. I don't comment on his blog anymore so thought of writing to to you here as I like 1970s bear market comparsion instade of 1930s. But I look at little differently.

    I equate April 70 bottom to March 09 bottom. Roughly April 71 was next major high similar to April 10. Then it corrected towards end of 71 which I think what happened after April 10. Then there is major top in Oct 72 which I expect to happen in 2011. May not stretch till Oct but may happen around half of 2011. Then from Oct 72 it dropped to 74 low which can happen from 2011 high to 2014 low. Since 2014 is also 40 yrs after 1974 it matches well. I think in your comparion you have equated march 09 low with 74 low and many bulls have this bt I find it 40 yr cycle bottoming much early.

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